Statistics & Inference

Sampling, estimation, confidence, hypothesis testing and the A/B test they add up to.

Module 01.5 · Beginner
Free

9h · 12 lessons · 1 challenge

Before this: Probability

About this module

Every model comparison is a statistical claim, and most of them are made badly. This module builds the machinery in order: sampling and the central limit theorem, point estimation and MAP, then confidence intervals, hypothesis testing, t-tests and power.

Power gets its own lesson rather than living inside the A/B lab, because the lab depends on it.

After this module you can

12 lessons

Lesson 1
1Population, sample and the sampling distribution
Kind
Concept
Length
45 min
Lesson 2
2The law of large numbers and the central limit theorem
Kind
Concept
Length
50 min
Lesson 3
3Point estimation: bias, variance and consistency
Kind
Concept
Length
45 min
Lesson 4
4Maximum a posteriori, and frequentist versus Bayesian
Kind
Concept
Length
45 min
Lesson 5
5Confidence intervals and the four ways people misread them
Kind
Concept
Length
50 min
Lesson 6
6Hypothesis testing, p-values and errors
Kind
Concept
Length
50 min
Lesson 7
7The t-distribution and t-tests
Kind
Concept
Length
40 min
Lesson 8
8Power, sample size and stopping rules
Kind
Concept
Length
45 min
Lesson 9
9Bootstrap and permutation methods
Kind
Concept
Length
45 min
Lesson 10
10Design the A/B test: power, duration, stopping
Kind
Lab
Length
80 min
Lesson 11
11Peek Penalty: watch a significant result evaporate
Kind
Interactive
Length
30 min
Lesson 12
12Checkpoint: is that result real?
Kind
Checkpoint
Length
25 min

The challenge: Peek Penalty

Run an A/B test and watch it every day. Stop when it looks significant. Then see how often that decision was wrong.

Worth 350 XP.

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